The end of the globalization cycle

She mentioned the same supply chain risk Elon Musk noted in Qatar Economic Forum. Everyone is talking about diversification, localization, and de-globalization.

Rise and Fall of Centralization

Globalization is one of the centralizations. Please see below the supply chain network comparison between 2007 and 2019 (the Link for the whole article).

Rise and Fall of Empires

Another name for global centralization is centralization by the Empire. For example, we can roughly divide Pax by the Hellenistic Empire, Mongolian Empire, British Empire, and American Empire.

Hellenistic Empire (BC 4th ~ BC 1st)

Hellenistic Empire was divided by the death of Alexander (BC 323); however, it lasted up to BC 31 until Roman Empire defeated them. Please refer to the Greek story series written by Nanami Shiono.

Mongolian Empire (12th ~ 16th)

Mongolian Empire started with Genghis Khan (c. 1162–1227)'s proclaim as ruler of all Mongols in 1206. However, it fell by the independence of Russia and the Qing dynasty in the middle of the 16th century. Please refer to the History of Central Asia written by Kim Ho-dong, one of the world's most recognized central Asian Historians.

British Empire (16th ~ 20th)

British Empire ruled the world in the Age of Maritime Expansion (16th century) until it fell during World War I (1914). Please refer to A Maritime History and the Age of Maritime Expansion, written by Kyung Chul Jou, one of the most famous Korean historians (major in Western history).

American Empire (20th ~ ?)

American Empire rose during World War I through Balfour Declaration (1917) and the Fourteen Points by President Woodrow Wilson (1918). United Nations initiated by the 14th point among Fourteen Points.

XIV. A general association of nations must be formed under specific covenants for the purpose of affording mutual guarantees of political independence and territorial integrity to great and small states alike.

However, there seem to be many reasons for American Empire's fall. Eric Frey's book “Schwarzbuch USA” (black book USA) describes American Empire's Sins from 1776 to the contemporary.

Further, however, considering the similar patterns (i.e., the Empires ruled the world for around 300~400 years), it is expected that I may not see the fall of the American Empire.

Cyclic time

Numerous examples show everything is circular. Among others,

Rudolf Simek theorizes that the survival of Líf and Lífþrasir at the end of Ragnarök is “a case of reduplication of the anthropogeny, understandable from the cyclic nature of the Eddic eschatology.”

We can see many things from this perspective. For instance, I can compare the cycle of the season to the ADR industry.

Season of ADR (Alternative Dispute Resolution)

Rise and fall can be expressed as four seasons—a cycle. Like M & A market cycle in my previous article, the ADR market has a cycle.

I heard David Steward's presentation about Ad-hoc Arbitration in the Maritime and Insurance Sector yesterday. It was pretty helpful to understand that winter is coming in the traditional international arbitration market, autumn is coming in the Ad-hoc Arbitration market, and spring has arrived in the international mediation market.

According to David, unlike the arbitration arranged by various International Arbitration Centres, ad-hoc arbitration can be conducted fast track as they don't spend unnecessary administrative time and cost.

De-centralization of the International Arbitration Market

ADR lawyers to prepare for the next era.